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VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//NM AI Research//Evidence watch//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:bpea-financing-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260925
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20260926
SUMMARY:Brookings discussion of AI financing and policy
DESCRIPTION:Which assumptions and exposure gaps survive the research discus
 sion?\nInspect: Conference draft\, presentation and responses concerning i
 nvestment scenarios\, financing structures and the visibility of creditor 
 exposures.\nImprovement: Better measurements and explicit sensitivity chec
 ks narrow uncertainty.\nDeterioration: Material exposure gaps persist or a
 ssumptions are contradicted by disclosed contracts and cash flows.\nLimits
 : A research presentation is not a financial outcome or a forecast of coll
 apse.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.b
 rookings.edu/events/bpea-fall-2026-conference/
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:bea-q2-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261001
SUMMARY:US Q2 GDP revision\, industry data and August household income
DESCRIPTION:Is growth broadening\, and can households sustain demand?\nInsp
 ect: Industry contributions\, revisions\, real disposable income\, real co
 nsumption and saving. Adjust investment interpretation for imports.\nImpro
 vement: Broader domestic demand and improving real household income.\nDete
 rioration: Growth concentrated in investment alongside weakening real inco
 me or consumption.\nLimits: A revision describes an earlier quarter\; it i
 s not a September activity reading or a clean AI counterfactual.\nCheck da
 te: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/sch
 edule/full
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:micron-q4-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261001
SUMMARY:Micron fiscal Q4 results
DESCRIPTION:Do reported orders and any customer prepayments lead to deliver
 ed supply and collected cash?\nInspect: Cash flow\, any disclosed customer
  deposits and their repayment or financing terms\, delivered memory and re
 vised capacity plans.\nImprovement: Disclosed cash receipts and delivery c
 onsistent with contractual milestones.\nDeterioration: Deposit reversals\,
  delivery slippage or financing needs growing faster than operating receip
 ts.\nLimits: An earnings call does not independently confirm customer acce
 ptance\; management forecasts remain forecasts.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nO
 utcome status: not_observed\nhttps://investors.micron.com/news/press-relea
 se/2026/Micron-Technology-to-Report-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-Results-on-Septe
 mber-30-2026/default.aspx
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-sep-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261002
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261003
SUMMARY:US September employment report
DESCRIPTION:Are hiring conditions improving beyond a few sectors?\nInspect:
  Payroll revisions\, unemployment\, participation\, hours and industry det
 ail.\nImprovement: Hiring and hours improve across industries without fall
 ing participation concealing weakness.\nDeterioration: Downward revisions 
 and weaker hiring or hours across several sectors.\nLimits: US aggregate e
 mployment does not measure EU AI operations vacancies.\nCheck date: 2026-0
 9-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_s
 ched.htm
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:eia-oct-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261006
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261007
SUMMARY:EIA energy outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook
DESCRIPTION:How do observed physical supply conditions compare with the lat
 est price forecast?\nInspect: Changes in production\, inventories\, export
 -route assumptions\, refining and household fuel costs.\nImprovement: Obse
 rved supply\, inventories and household costs support a less constrained o
 utlook.\nDeterioration: Supply constraints or inventory declines undermine
  the forecast.\nLimits: An official forecast remains a forecast. Falling o
 il prices can also reflect weaker demand.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome
  status: not_observed\nhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.
 php
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:asml-q3-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261014
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261015
SUMMARY:ASML Q3 results
DESCRIPTION:Are equipment orders converting into recognised sales and insta
 llations?\nInspect: Bookings\, cancellations\, shipments\, customer accept
 ance\, receivables and export restrictions.\nImprovement: Delivered equipm
 ent and cash collection support earlier orders.\nDeterioration: Cancellati
 ons\, acceptance delays or restrictive permissions affect delivery.\nLimit
 s: Bookings are not cash or installed productive capacity\; product and re
 gional mix matter.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\n
 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/937966/000162828026048235/statutor
 yinterimreport20.htm
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:iea-oct-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261014
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261015
SUMMARY:IEA October Oil Market Report
DESCRIPTION:Do the IEA and EIA readings agree on the direction of physical 
 energy conditions?\nInspect: Observed stocks\, production\, refining and t
 rade alongside revisions to forecasts.\nImprovement: Physical indicators a
 gree on improving supply conditions across sources.\nDeterioration: Stock 
 draws or route disruption persist despite a more optimistic forecast.\nLim
 its: The detailed report may require a subscription\; record unavailable t
 ables rather than infer them from highlights.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOut
 come status: not_observed\nhttps://www.iea.org/events/oil-market-report-oc
 tober-2026
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:inflation-sep-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261014
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261015
SUMMARY:US September CPI and real earnings
DESCRIPTION:How are energy prices affecting underlying costs and household 
 purchasing power?\nInspect: Headline and underlying components\, real earn
 ings and prior-period comparisons.\nImprovement: Energy pressure eases wit
 hout broadening to other components\, alongside firmer real earnings.\nDet
 erioration: Energy pressure persists and broadens while real earnings weak
 en.\nLimits: One monthly print does not establish a trend or determine the
  next interest-rate decision.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not
 _observed\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:tsmc-q3-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261015
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261016
SUMMARY:TSMC Q3 results
DESCRIPTION:Is chip demand supported by delivered output rather than orders
  alone?\nInspect: Reported revenue\, capacity utilisation where disclosed\
 , capital spending\, cash generation and next-period outlook.\nImprovement
 : Delivered demand and cash generation remain consistent with capacity add
 itions.\nDeterioration: Customer concentration\, postponed orders or utili
 sation weakness emerge.\nLimits: Supplier strength does not establish prof
 itability for the AI customers buying its output.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\
 nOutcome status: not_observed\nhttps://investor.cld.tsmc.com/english
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fed-oct-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261028
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261029
SUMMARY:FOMC decision after 27-28 October meeting
DESCRIPTION:How does policy alter financing exposure?\nInspect: Decision an
 d rationale\; then compare borrower floating-rate terms\, credit margins a
 nd hedges.\nImprovement: Financing costs or risk premiums ease without sev
 ere demand deterioration.\nDeterioration: Benchmark rates or lender margin
 s rise for exposed borrowers.\nLimits: The policy rate is not each borrowe
 r's all-in cost. Fixed-rate debt does not instantly reprice.\nCheck date: 
 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/m
 onetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:bea-q3-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261029
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261030
SUMMARY:US Q3 advance GDP and September income/outlays
DESCRIPTION:Is investment-led growth translating into broader demand?\nInsp
 ect: Real final domestic demand\, investment components\, imports and real
  income.\nImprovement: Growth broadens and households retain purchasing po
 wer.\nDeterioration: Investment slows while household demand weakens.\nLim
 its: Advance estimates are revised\; no dedicated national-accounts AI cat
 egory isolates the causal effect.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status:
  not_observed\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ecb-oct-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261029
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261030
SUMMARY:ECB monetary-policy decision
DESCRIPTION:How are euro-area financing and demand conditions changing?\nIn
 spect: Decision\, financing discussion and later bank lending data.\nImpro
 vement: Credit availability and real demand improve.\nDeterioration: Tight
 er financing coincides with weaker demand.\nLimits: Euro-area conditions d
 o not substitute for monetary conditions outside the euro area or for a sp
 ecific employer's finances.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_o
 bserved\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.htm
 l
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:productivity-q3-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261105
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261106
SUMMARY:US Q3 preliminary productivity and costs
DESCRIPTION:Are gains visible beyond task-level AI demonstrations?\nInspect
 : Output\, hours\, productivity and unit labour costs\; compare later revi
 sions.\nImprovement: Output per hour improves alongside firm-level evidenc
 e of delivered value.\nDeterioration: Firm claims lack supporting output g
 ains or costs absorb the benefit.\nLimits: Aggregate productivity cannot b
 y itself identify AI's contribution.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome stat
 us: not_observed\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:eia-nov-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261110
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261111
SUMMARY:EIA November energy outlook
DESCRIPTION:How do the October forecast assumptions compare with the next o
 bservations?\nInspect: Same physical supply\, inventory and household-cost
  measures as October.\nImprovement: Observed supply and inventory conditio
 ns improve across releases.\nDeterioration: Forecasts repeatedly postpone 
 improvements or depend on new unsupported assumptions.\nLimits: Keep obser
 vation periods distinct from publication dates.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nO
 utcome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_sch
 edule.php
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:eurohpc-tender-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261112
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261113
SUMMARY:EuroHPC AI Gigafactories tender deadline
DESCRIPTION:Which European delivery organisations progress towards funded w
 ork?\nInspect: Subsequent evaluated awards\, signed funding\, hosting part
 ners\, access terms and employer vacancies.\nImprovement: Executed awards 
 and operating access produce identifiable work and hiring.\nDeterioration:
  Awards slip\, financing remains conditional or announced jobs do not appe
 ar.\nLimits: This is a consortium procurement deadline\, not an individual
  job or research-grant application deadline.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutc
 ome status: not_observed\nhttps://www.eurohpc-ju.europa.eu/eurohpc-joint-u
 ndertaking-launches-ai-gigafactories-call-2026-07-30_en
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:bea-q3-profits-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261125
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261126
SUMMARY:US Q3 second GDP estimate and corporate profits
DESCRIPTION:Do profits and revised output support earlier growth claims?\nI
 nspect: Revisions\, sectoral profit detail and consistency with company ca
 sh flows.\nImprovement: Broader profits and cash generation accompany grow
 th.\nDeterioration: Profit weakness or downward revisions accompany financ
 ing strain.\nLimits: National corporate profits do not establish standalon
 e profitability of private frontier labs.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome
  status: not_observed\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:eia-dec-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261208
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261209
SUMMARY:EIA December energy outlook
DESCRIPTION:What changed in the medium-term energy outlook?\nInspect: Compa
 re successive supply and demand assumptions with observed delivery.\nImpro
 vement: Repeated physical improvement supports the forward path.\nDeterior
 ation: Repeated postponement leaves the forward path dependent on unresolv
 ed disruption.\nLimits: Retain each vintage rather than replacing an earli
 er forecast silently.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observe
 d\nhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.php
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fed-dec-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261209
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261210
SUMMARY:FOMC decision and projections after 8-9 December meeting
DESCRIPTION:Has the balance of inflation\, employment and financing risk ch
 anged?\nInspect: Decision\, projections and subsequent borrowing terms.\nI
 mprovement: Inflation pressure eases with resilient demand and financing a
 ccess.\nDeterioration: Persistent inflation combines with weaker activity 
 or credit tightening.\nLimits: Committee projections are conditional views
 \, not promises.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_observed\nht
 tps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ecb-dec-2026@nmai-research-calendar
DTSTAMP:20260924T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261217
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20261218
SUMMARY:ECB monetary-policy decision
DESCRIPTION:What do financing and demand conditions imply for European empl
 oyers?\nInspect: Decision and financing outlook\; examine individual emplo
 yers' finances and vacancies separately.\nImprovement: Financing and deman
 d improve across relevant employer markets.\nDeterioration: Tighter credit
  or weaker demand affects the employers being assessed.\nLimits: A macroec
 onomic release cannot establish an individual employer's finances\, vacanc
 ies or hiring timetable.\nCheck date: 2026-09-24\nOutcome status: not_obse
 rved\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
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